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date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 05:28:29 -0000,    group: uk.sci.weather        back       
Today's model interpretation (4/11/09)   
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0525, 4th November 2009

The first half of next week will see rain moving away from the east, 
followed by a brief settled interlude. By midweek, further rain will move in 
from the west in association with a low.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Low pressure lies to the north, with WSW'lies over the UK. Tomorrow the low 
moves southwards over the UK and fills, followed by drifting eastwards on 
Friday. By then Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under light winds, with 
westerlies elsewhere. A trough moves eastwards on Saturday, with strong 
southerlies in advance and westerlies following behind.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows the jet heading southwards over the Irish Sea, 
with a trough over central Europe and a ridge to the west. At the 500hPa 
level there's a northerly flow with again a ridge to the west. ECM similarly 
has a northerly flow, while MetO and JMA have NW'lies aloft. GEM shows an 
upper low over the UK.
At the surface, GFS brings northerlies for England and Wales with a col over 
Scotland and Northern Ireland. ECM has NE'lies for England and Wales and 
again a col elsewhere. MetO is similar to GFS, as is JMA. GEM shows 
northerlies for all with a low over NW France.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings a col over England and Wales on day 6 with strong southerlies 
elsewhere ahead of a trough. The trough moves eastwards on day 7, leading to 
southerlies and SW'lies over the UK.
GFS has a col too for England and Wales and again southerlies for Scotland 
and Northern Ireland. WSW'lies follow on day 7 as the trough moves 
eastwards.

Looking further afield
ECM shows a low over Wales on day 8, with easterlies to the north and 
SW'lies to the south. A trough covers the same area on day 9, before moving 
northwards to the Scottish borders on day 10.
Day 8 with GFS shows southerlies due to a low to the west. A trough crosses 
the UK on day 9, bringing NW'lies, only to be followed by further 
southerlies on day 10.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres)
The ensembles show continue to show a cool week ahead followed by a switch 
to warmer conditions.
date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 05:28:29 -0000   author:   Darren Prescott

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