The present El Nino conditions have strengthened over the last week.
The model consensus is now that it will peak during the boreal winter,
as a moderate El Nino (>.0C). It doesn't look like it will be an
exceptional event, a la 1998.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-10.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

In article <G91Im.49339$F%2.28830@newsfe19.ams2>,
 "Keith(Southend)"  writes:
>Mind you, a real winter is such a thing from the distant past I do
>wonder if I have already seen my last :-(

Last winter got pretty real for a while in many parts of the country, if
only briefly. I still feel hard done by that we only had about 3 inches
of snow here, when less than ten miles north they had ten inches! :)
-- 
John Hall  "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
            like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
            its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
                                      Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

On Nov 3, 9:00 pm, "Keith(Southend)" 
wrote:
> Dawlish wrote:
> > The present El Nino conditions have strengthened over the last week.
> > The model consensus is now that it will peak during the boreal winter,
> > as a moderate El Nino (>.0C). It doesn't look like it will be an
> > exceptional event, a la 1998.
>
> > •El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
> > •Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
> > across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
> > •Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
> > is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
> > 2009-10.
>
> >http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso...
>
> http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.11.2.2009.gif
>
> Certainly looks more uniform across the Pacific now. Bang goes any
> chance of snow this year here :-(
>
> --
> Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
> e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

It does now look more "classic" now. The pattern of warmth seemed to
be heading that way last week, as downwelling was beginning to spread
across to the east. However, the link between an El Nino and a mild
winter in the UK is a tenuous one. I'd not reduce the chances of a
cold winter as a result of there being a likely El Nino Keith and you
could get heavy snowfalls in any UK winter. As I keep saying, we can
get a cold winter any year, even in a warming trend, it's just that
the odds against it are longer than they were 30/40 years ago (i.e.
there's less chance of one) and we have no idea in which particular
year the cold one will turn up - even only 4 weeks away from its
start!

3/1 a cold winter. If anyone believes that GW has stopped and the UK
can't completely buck that global trend, those odds are a giveaway.

Will Hand wrote:

> Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
> started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned that 
there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd probably have 
stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest SST picture has an 
interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W. If this were to grow, the 
odds against a cold winter could tumble.

-- 
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.  E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On 3 Nov, 21:00, "Keith(Southend)"  wrote:

> Certainly looks more uniform across the Pacific now. Bang goes any
> chance of snow this year here :-(

Keith - you get the gold medal for "first person to write off the
winter chances of snow".

Well played !

Richard

On 3 Nov, 21:13, "Will Hand"  wrote:

> Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
> started" :-)
> At least the beast is a weak one Keith!
> Richard - do you keep tabs of such posts? Is this the earliest one we have
> ever had?

How odd - I just replied to Keith - and then noticed your post !!! I
think we're getting close to a World Record here !!

Richard