Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast,
incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18%
moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN
compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.


-- 
Greymaus
 .
  .
...

greymaus  writes
>Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast, 
>incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18% 
>moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN 
>compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.

Yes indeed.

Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.

-- 
Oz

Oz wrote:
> greymaus  writes
>> Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast, 
>> incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18% 
>> moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN 
>> compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
> 
> Yes indeed.
> 
> Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
> expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.
> 
I am not sure what other peoples' yields are, but ours are some of 
the highest ever. 4.2 tonnes of winter barley/acre (Sequel) and our 
spring (Quench) running at over 3.5 tonnes on yesterday's combining. 
No wonder the market is softening. I wonder what the lag to 
fertiliser prices is?

-- 
Stephen Temple

J F Temple & Son Ltd
Mrs Temple's Cheese - Quality Norfolk Produce
Barn Owl Instruments and Controls

Stephen Temple  writes
>I am not sure what other peoples' yields are, but ours are some of the 
>highest ever. 4.2 tonnes of winter barley/acre (Sequel) and our spring 
>(Quench) running at over 3.5 tonnes on yesterday's combining. No wonder the 
>market is softening. I wonder what the lag to fertiliser prices is?

Not enought cut to say as yet, but reports are 'promising'.

-- 
Oz

On Tuesday, in article
     <N9Gdnbci-qqMhzzVnZ2dnUVZ8tPinZ2d@posted.metronet>
     usenet@jftemple.co.uk "Stephen Temple" wrote:

> Oz wrote:
> > greymaus  writes
> >> Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast, 
> >> incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18% 
> >> moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN 
> >> compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
> > 
> > Yes indeed.
> > 
> > Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
> > expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.
> > 
> I am not sure what other peoples' yields are, but ours are some of 
> the highest ever. 4.2 tonnes of winter barley/acre (Sequel) and our 
> spring (Quench) running at over 3.5 tonnes on yesterday's combining. 
> No wonder the market is softening. I wonder what the lag to 
> fertiliser prices is?

Since fertiliser prices are strongly linked to energy prices, by the 
nitrogen, I can see the lag being nearly infinite.

I've also seen it suggested that energy costs have tripled the cost of 
shipping a container of goods. Which isn't going to just push up the 
costs of exporting production to low-wage countries. A lot of the 
plastics recycling depends on back-loading of containers.

-- 
David G. Bell -- SF Fan, Filker, and Punslinger.

On the horizon, a carrier task force of the Salvation Navy was 
turning into the wind, preparing to launch Zeppelins.

In article <5T+xMgARzQoIFw95@farmeroz.port995.com>, Oz
<URL:mailto:Oz@farmeroz.port995.com> wrote:
> greymaus  writes
> >Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast, 
> >incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18% 
> >moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN 
> >compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
> 
> Yes indeed.
> 
> Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
> expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.

This link is worth a look for a low resolution summary:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7284196.stm

They don't give details but it's reasonable to assume there's a lot of room
for yoyo prices over the shorter term.

I understand that the Mexico and the southern US are looking at a reasonable
harvest but the USA as a whole has been hit by the weather:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7447582.stm

I'd guess that merchants are puying only what they need right now and
waiting to see what the Australian crops look like in the medium term 'cos
many of them have had a good start:

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/48875/story.htm

But if you can, it should still be worth storing 'til after the harvest
glut.  

Chap I talk to down here has good yields but iffy quality - no problem
selling though as iIuhc he sold most of it forward when the speculators were
keenest.

Cheerio,

Btw: Graymaus; Looks like I'll be in the republic in a couple of weeks time,
southern counties.  Whereabouts are you?  Email addy is valid.


-- 

>>   derek@farm-direct.co.uk
>>   http://www.farm-direct.co.uk/

In article , greymausg@mail.com 
(greymaus) wrote:

> *From:* greymaus 
> *Date:* 11 Aug 2008 22:28:59 GMT
> 
> Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast,
> incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18%
> moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN
> compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
> 
> 
> -- 
> Greymaus
>  .
>   .
> ...  
My neighbour was having a cuppa here last night when the local merchant 
called him and offered £100/t for winter barley, non-assured @15% This was 
down 10 quid over 9 days. 

"Happy days are here again....", sang the Cowman.


Steve Rawlings

On 2008-08-12, Stephen Temple  wrote:
> Oz wrote:
>> greymaus  writes
>>> Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast, 
>>> incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18% 
>>> moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN 
>>> compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
>> 
>> Yes indeed.
>> 
>> Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
>> expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.
>> 
> I am not sure what other peoples' yields are, but ours are some of 
> the highest ever. 4.2 tonnes of winter barley/acre (Sequel) and our 
> spring (Quench) running at over 3.5 tonnes on yesterday's combining. 
> No wonder the market is softening. I wonder what the lag to 
> fertiliser prices is?
>

The man I was talking to yesterday was projecting 600 euros/tonne for next
year, which is silly. However, going through Athy last week, in our main
corn-growing area, people going from merchants with large amounts of
fertilizer on tractor trailers (One with burst tyre on trailer). I suppose
that people were sent for fertilizer, not worrying about price, one can
prepare for sowing when weather too wet for harvesting. 


-- 
Greymaus
 .
  .
...

On 2008-08-12, Oz  wrote:
> greymaus  writes
>>Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast, 
>>incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18% 
>>moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN 
>>compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
>
> Yes indeed.
>
> Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
> expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.
>

Has the drought broken in Riverina, Australia?.


-- 
Greymaus
 .
  .
...

David G. Bell wrote:

> Since fertiliser prices are strongly linked to energy prices, by the 
> nitrogen, I can see the lag being nearly infinite.
> 

Clearly for N, much less so for P and K, the prices of which rose 
much faster than for N


> I've also seen it suggested that energy costs have tripled the cost of 
> shipping a container of goods. Which isn't going to just push up the 
> costs of exporting production to low-wage countries. A lot of the 
> plastics recycling depends on back-loading of containers.
> 


-- 
Stephen Temple

J F Temple & Son Ltd
Mrs Temple's Cheese - Quality Norfolk Produce
Barn Owl Instruments and Controls

On 2008-08-12, srawlings@cix.compulink.co.uk  wrote:
> In article , greymausg@mail.com 
> (greymaus) wrote:
>
>> *From:* greymaus 
>> *Date:* 11 Aug 2008 22:28:59 GMT
>> 
>> Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast,
>> incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18%
>> moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN
>> compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
>> 
>> 
>> -- 
>> Greymaus
>>  .
>>   .
>> ...  
> My neighbour was having a cuppa here last night when the local merchant 
> called him and offered £100/t for winter barley, non-assured @15% This was 
> down 10 quid over 9 days. 
>
> "Happy days are here again....", sang the Cowman.
>

Normalized to 18% for comparison, Yikes.. Prices have been poor since
early Summer, but the merchants here (at least) have held the line to get
their stores cleared at profit.

-- 
Greymaus
 .
  .
...

On 2008-08-12, greymaus  wrote:
> On 2008-08-12, Oz  wrote:
>> greymaus  writes
>>>Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast, 
>>>incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18% 
>>>moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN 
>>>compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.
>>
>> Yes indeed.
>>
>> Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
>> expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.
>>
>
> Has the drought broken in Riverina, Australia?.
>
>

Has in parts of Australia, according to the BBC.

-- 
Greymaus
 .
  .
...

In message , Oz 
 writes
>Stephen Temple  writes
>>I am not sure what other peoples' yields are, but ours are some of the
>>highest ever. 4.2 tonnes of winter barley/acre (Sequel) and our spring
>>(Quench) running at over 3.5 tonnes on yesterday's combining. No wonder the
>>market is softening. I wonder what the lag to fertiliser prices is?
>
>Not enought cut to say as yet, but reports are 'promising'.

In view of the indifferent weather, would anyone like to buy a small 
mobile drier?:-)

regards
>

-- 
Tim Lamb

On 2008-08-12, Tim Lamb  wrote:
> In message , Oz 
> writes
>>Stephen Temple  writes
>>>I am not sure what other peoples' yields are, but ours are some of the
>>>highest ever. 4.2 tonnes of winter barley/acre (Sequel) and our spring
>>>(Quench) running at over 3.5 tonnes on yesterday's combining. No wonder the
>>>market is softening. I wonder what the lag to fertiliser prices is?
>>
>>Not enought cut to say as yet, but reports are 'promising'.
>
> In view of the indifferent weather, would anyone like to buy a small 
> mobile drier?:-)
>
> regards
>>
>

Would anyone like to contribute to the cost of the oil :))))).


-- 
Greymaus
 .
  .
...

In message <5T+xMgARzQoIFw95@farmeroz.port995.com>
          Oz  wrote:

> greymaus  writes
>>Talking to a small corn merchant this morning (after the forcast,
>>incorrectly, gave heavy rain), he was offering 140 euros/tonne, 18%
>>moisture. Giving him wiggle room for 150, i suppose, 500 euros highN
>>compounds. Two trends leading to a bad place.

> Yes indeed.

> Remember most of asia has protected its farmers (or its consumers) so
> expect big fluctuations in world production and thus world prices.

Can you elaborate on that statement a bit?  I cannot grasp what you 
are saying.



-- 
Edward..
What can they know, whose talk is only of bullocks.