Child obesity 'is levelling off'

Forecasts of a huge rise in obesity among children in England have been
significantly downgraded following a new analysis of data.

The National Heart Forum found evidence that the rate of increase in
childhood obesity may be starting to slow.

Its figures suggest that by 2020 the proportion of boys aged 2-11 who
will be overweight or obese will be 30% - not 42% as previously
predicted.

For girls of the same age the revised prediction is now 27% - down from
48%.

OBESITY IN 2020
# For the age group two to 11 Boys: Overweight: Old prediction: 22% New
prediction: 17% Obese: Old prediction: 20% New prediction: 13%
# Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 34% New prediction: 17% Obese: Old
prediction: 14% New prediction: 10% For the age group 12 to 19
# Boys: Overweight: Old prediction: 25% New prediction: 18% Obese: Old
prediction: 19% New prediction: 6%
# Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 35% New prediction: 29% Obese: Old
prediction: 30% New prediction: 9%

The revised predictions also indicate a big drop in the number of
overweight and obese young people aged 12-19.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/health/8338456.stm

Published: 2009/11/03 00:44:22 GMT
Note: The massive difference in the estimates of obesity vividly shows 
how worthless "expert" evidence is. They either use models which have 
contentious parameters or simply extrapolate from historical data, both 
worthless as guides to the future. Why is obesity levelling out? Here's 
simple hypothesis: those who get fat will be fall into two categories 
(1) those who have an abnormal compulsion to eat caused by innate 
qualities or circumstances and (2) those with a genetic disposition to 
lay down fat more easily. If that is true, there will come a point where 
those two categories have reached their obesity maximum.

The problem with statistics which come within the remit of moral panics 
is that most of them pay no heed to the human personality. Take 
drink-driving: a more relaxed state may more than compensate for a 
slight loss in physical capacity to respond after taking a couple of 
drinks. RH

-- 
Robert Henderson
Personal website: http://www.anywhere.demon.co.uk

On Wed, 4 Nov 2009 11:54:23 +0000, Robert Henderson
 wrote:

>  Child obesity 'is levelling off'
>
>Forecasts of a huge rise in obesity among children in England have been
>significantly downgraded following a new analysis of data.
>
>The National Heart Forum found evidence that the rate of increase in
>childhood obesity may be starting to slow.
>
>Its figures suggest that by 2020 the proportion of boys aged 2-11 who
>will be overweight or obese will be 30% - not 42% as previously
>predicted.
>
>For girls of the same age the revised prediction is now 27% - down from
>48%.
>
>OBESITY IN 2020
># For the age group two to 11 Boys: Overweight: Old prediction: 22% New
>prediction: 17% Obese: Old prediction: 20% New prediction: 13%
># Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 34% New prediction: 17% Obese: Old
>prediction: 14% New prediction: 10% For the age group 12 to 19
># Boys: Overweight: Old prediction: 25% New prediction: 18% Obese: Old
>prediction: 19% New prediction: 6%
># Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 35% New prediction: 29% Obese: Old
>prediction: 30% New prediction: 9%

why have you omitted the confidence levels?
is it because you don't know them?
is it because you can't understand them?
is it because you're trying to rescue marxism?

>The revised predictions also indicate a big drop in the number of
>overweight and obese young people aged 12-19.
>Story from BBC NEWS:
>http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/health/8338456.stm
>
>Published: 2009/11/03 00:44:22 GMT
>Note: The massive difference in the estimates of obesity vividly shows 
>how worthless "expert" evidence is. They either use models which have 
>contentious parameters or simply extrapolate from historical data, both 
>worthless as guides to the future. Why is obesity levelling out? Here's 
>simple hypothesis: those who get fat will be fall into two categories 
>(1) those who have an abnormal compulsion to eat caused by innate 
>qualities or circumstances and (2) those with a genetic disposition to 
>lay down fat more easily. If that is true, there will come a point where 
>those two categories have reached their obesity maximum.

what about the parents who continually force crud on you

>The problem with statistics which come within the remit of moral panics 
>is that most of them pay no heed to the human personality. Take 
>drink-driving: a more relaxed state may more than compensate for a 
>slight loss in physical capacity to respond after taking a couple of 
>drinks. RH

the problem with statistics is innumerates like you

regards

-- 
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics 
 energy, education, politics, etc over 1 million document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  all that is necessary for       []     walk quietly and carry
  the triumph of evil is that     []           a big stick.
  good people do nothing     []    trust actions not words
                    only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In message , abelard 
 writes
>> Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 34% New prediction: 17% Obese: Old
>>prediction: 14% New prediction: 10% For the age group 12 to 19
>># Boys: Overweight: Old prediction: 25% New prediction: 18% Obese: Old
>>prediction: 19% New prediction: 6%
>># Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 35% New prediction: 29% Obese: Old
>>prediction: 30% New prediction: 9%
>
>why have you omitted the confidence levels?
>is it because you don't know them?
>is it because you can't understand them?
>is it because you're trying to rescue marxism?
>

It is because the BBC report did not give them. RH

>>The revised predictions also indicate a big drop in the number of
>>overweight and obese young people aged 12-19.
>>Story from BBC NEWS:
>>http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/health/8338456.stm
>>
>>Published: 2009/11/03 00:44:22 GMT
>>Note: The massive difference in the estimates of obesity vividly shows
>>how worthless "expert" evidence is. They either use models which have
>>contentious parameters or simply extrapolate from historical data, both
>>worthless as guides to the future. Why is obesity levelling out? Here's
>>simple hypothesis: those who get fat will be fall into two categories
>>(1) those who have an abnormal compulsion to eat caused by innate
>>qualities or circumstances and (2) those with a genetic disposition to
>>lay down fat more easily. If that is true, there will come a point where
>>those two categories have reached their obesity maximum.
>
>what about the parents who continually force crud on you
>


Mmm...I wonder what the valev computer equivalent to being fed crud 
is.....Ah, I know, what its owner feeds it with, namely, pure gigo... RH

>>The problem with statistics which come within the remit of moral panics
>>is that most of them pay no heed to the human personality. Take
>>drink-driving: a more relaxed state may more than compensate for a
>>slight loss in physical capacity to respond after taking a couple of
>>drinks. RH
>
>the problem with statistics is innumerates like you
>

ROTFL! If only a machine could be the target of irony... RH
>regards

-- 
Robert Henderson
Personal website: http://www.anywhere.demon.co.uk

On Wed, 4 Nov 2009 15:06:53 +0000, Robert Henderson
 wrote:

>In message , abelard 
> writes
>>> Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 34% New prediction: 17% Obese: Old
>>>prediction: 14% New prediction: 10% For the age group 12 to 19
>>># Boys: Overweight: Old prediction: 25% New prediction: 18% Obese: Old
>>>prediction: 19% New prediction: 6%
>>># Girls: Overweight: Old prediction: 35% New prediction: 29% Obese: Old
>>>prediction: 30% New prediction: 9%
>>
>>why have you omitted the confidence levels?
>>is it because you don't know them?
>>is it because you can't understand them?
>>is it because you're trying to rescue marxism?
>>
>
>It is because the BBC report did not give them. RH

they're as bad as you are...
here is something you may wish to sight....
http://www.heartforum.org.uk/downloads/Child_Obesity_short_Oct_09.pdf

it's not wonderfully well presented...

sample sizes and structures damage your brains

i've seen recent reports on this where the confidence limits are
    very wide

this is the press release:-
http://www.heartforum.org.uk/News_Media_pressreleases_ObesityLevellingOff_NewData.aspx


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    * Press Release: November 2009: New data suggests obesity may be
levelling off in c ...

Press Release: November 2009: New data suggests obesity may be
levelling off in children

03 November 2009
The National Heart Forum today published 'Obesity trends for children
aged 2-11 years and 12-19 years' which suggests that obesity may be
levelling off in children.

The National Heart Forum compared previous forecasts of obesity
prevalence based on Health Survey for England (HSE) obesity data, to
new updated forecasts based on data between 2000 and 2007. This showed
a significantly healthier picture, suggesting that the rate of
increase in obesity levels across the country may be in decline.

The prevalence of overweight and obesity amongst children in England
has risen relentlessly since the mid 1970s. This data shows
encouraging signs that this rising trend may be levelling out.

The team of experts led by Professor Klim McPherson of Oxford
University and Chair of the National Heart Forum conducted the
analysis preparing forecasts up to 2020 for children's overweight and
obesity levels using the most recent HSE data and compared them to
previous estimates, based on survey data till 2004.

The new 2020 forecasts suggest that the predicted proportion of
overweight boys aged 2-11years falls from 22% to 17% and of obese boys
falls from 20% to 13%.The predicted proportion of overweight girls
aged 2-11years falls sharply from 34% to 17% and of obese girls falls
from 14% to 10%.

For young people aged 12-19 years the forecasts are also more
positive. The predicted proportion of overweight boys in 2020
decreases from 25% to 18% and of obese boys decreases from 19% to 6%.
The predicted proportion of overweight girls decreases from 35% to 29%
and of obese girls decreases from 30% to 9%.

Professor Klim McPherson, said:

"These trends present a more positive picture that obesity may be
levelling off in children. However, prevalence, and current trends, of
excess weight are still unacceptably high and these figures should not
be taken as an argument for complacency. The Government needs to keep
up the work they are doing to tackle obesity.

"We will need to continue to monitor these trends for the next few
years to ensure that this promising data is a sign of permanent change
in obesity trends."

The Minister for Public Health, Gillian Merron said:

"Obesity is one of the biggest health challenges we face, there are
currently 1.5 million children and 25 million adults that are
overweight or obese, leaving them at increased risk of type 2
diabetes, cancer, heart and liver disease.

"The encouraging news that child obesity may be levelling off is
thanks to the hard work of families, schools and the NHS across
England, supported by Government initiatives such as 5 A Day and
Healthy Schools  which have overseen improvements to school food and
school sport.

"But obesity levels are still too high and we need to keep the
momentum going.

"We'll only turn the tide on obesity for good if everyone -
government, families and industry - play their part."

>>>The revised predictions also indicate a big drop in the number of
>>>overweight and obese young people aged 12-19.
>>>Story from BBC NEWS:
>>>http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/health/8338456.stm
>>>
>>>Published: 2009/11/03 00:44:22 GMT
>>>Note: The massive difference in the estimates of obesity vividly shows
>>>how worthless "expert" evidence is. They either use models which have
>>>contentious parameters or simply extrapolate from historical data, both
>>>worthless as guides to the future. Why is obesity levelling out? Here's
>>>simple hypothesis: those who get fat will be fall into two categories
>>>(1) those who have an abnormal compulsion to eat caused by innate
>>>qualities or circumstances and (2) those with a genetic disposition to
>>>lay down fat more easily. If that is true, there will come a point where
>>>those two categories have reached their obesity maximum.
>>
>>what about the parents who continually force crud on you
>>
>
>
>Mmm...I wonder what the valev computer equivalent to being fed crud 
>is.....Ah, I know, what its owner feeds it with, namely, pure gigo... RH
>
>>>The problem with statistics which come within the remit of moral panics
>>>is that most of them pay no heed to the human personality. Take
>>>drink-driving: a more relaxed state may more than compensate for a
>>>slight loss in physical capacity to respond after taking a couple of
>>>drinks. RH
>>
>>the problem with statistics is innumerates like you

>ROTFL! If only a machine could be the target of irony... RH

modern machines are not irony, they are much more
    silicony
you wooden structures are so outdated

regards

-- 
web site at www.abelard.org - news comment service, logic, economics 
 energy, education, politics, etc over 1 million document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  all that is necessary for       []     walk quietly and carry
  the triumph of evil is that     []           a big stick.
  good people do nothing     []    trust actions not words
                    only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On Nov 4, 3:54 am, Robert Henderson 
wrote:
>   Child obesity 'is levelling off'
>
> Forecasts of a huge rise in obesity among children in England have been
> significantly downgraded following a new analysis of data.

Yep - not so bad as in your day eh fatso?