CO2 - Cause or Effect?

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date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 10:01:09 GMT, group: uk.politics.environment back

CO2 - Cause or Effect?

Over the last 5 years a significant body of scientific research has
concluded that atmospheric carbon dioxide is not the climate criminal
it is made out to be by self-proclaimed 'environmentalist' groups and
opportunist politicians.
 
Below is a summary of this research evidence, with links to a review
of each, demonstrating clearly that hysterical demands for carbon
dioxide emissions reductions together with the fuel duty hikes and
climate change levy introduced supposedly to further these demands are
an environmentally pointless 'King Canute' exercise designed purely to
restrict individual mobility, and exercise corporate energy control,
through extortionate levels of taxation.

Petit et al. (1999) reconstructed surface air temperature and
atmospheric CO2 concentration profiles from Vostok ice core samples
covering 420,000 years, concluding that during glaciation "the CO2
decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years" and
"the same sequence of climate forcing operated during each
termination." Using sections of ice core records from the last three
inter-glacial transitions, Fischer et al. (1999) decided that "the
time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature
change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three
glacial-interglacial transitions." In other words, an increase in
carbon dioxide levels, the much hyped 'cause' of global warming,
actually happens long after the warming has started, demonstrating
clearly that it cannot possibly be the cause.

On the basis of atmospheric carbon dioxide data obtained from
Antarctic Taylor Dome ice core samples, and temperature data obtained
from the Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) looked at the
relationship between these two variables over the period 60,000-20,000
years BP (Before Present). A statistical test on the data showed that
movement in the air's CO2 content lagged behind shifts in air
temperature by approximately 900 years, while a second statistical
test yielded a mean lag-time of 1200 years. Similarly, in a study of
air temperature and CO2 data obtained from high time resolution
samples at the Antarctic Concordia Dome site, for the period
22,000-9,000 BP (which covers the last glacial-to-interglacial
transition) Monnin et al. (2001) found that the start of the CO2
increase lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. In
yet another study of the 420,000-year Vostok ice-cores, Mudelsee
(2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration
lagged behind variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years.
Proving once again that the greens have put effect before cause.

In a study using different methodology, Yokoyama et al. (2000)
analyzed sediments in the tectonically stable Bonaparte Gulf of
Australia to determine the timing of the initial melting phase of the
last great ice age. Commenting on the results of that study, Clark and
Mix (2000) note that the rapid rise in sea level caused by the melting
of land-based ice that began approximately 19,000 years ago preceded
the post-glacial rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 3,000
years. Once more the order of events confounds the greens: a shift in
carbon dioxide levels cannot 'cause' a temperature rise that happened
3,000 years earlier.

The most recent study available covering this theme is that of Caillon
et al. (2003), who focused on an isotope of argon (40Ar) that can be
taken as a climate proxy, thus providing constraints about the
relative timing of CO2 shifts and climate change. Air bubbles in the
Vostok ice core over the period that comprises what is called Glacial
Termination III - which occurred 240,000 years BP - were studied. The
result of their painstaking analysis was that "the CO2 increase lagged
behind Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years." This finding,
in the words of Caillon et al., confirms that CO2 is not the forcing
that drives the climatic system. Anthropogenic climate change
(man-made global warming theory), based on the claimed impact of CO2
emissions from transport and industry, is stone cold dead.

 Reference: Caillon, N., Severinghaus, J.P., Jouzel, J., Barnola,
J.-M., Kang, J. and Lipenkov, V.Y. 2003. Timing of atmospheric CO2 and
Antarctic temperature changes across Termination III. Science 299:
1728-1731 (2003).
 
Acknowledgements: CSCDGC; EMA

date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 10:01:09 GMT author: Steve in Herts