BEIJING, China (AP) -- China has overtaken the United States as the world's 
top producer of carbon dioxide emissions -- the biggest man-made contributor 
to global warming -- based on the latest widely accepted energy consumption 
data, a Dutch research group says.

According to a report released Tuesday by the Netherlands Environmental 
Assessment Agency, China overtook the U.S. in emissions of CO2 by 8 percent 
in 2006. While China was 2 percent below the United States in 2005, 
voracious coal consumption and increased cement production caused the 
numbers to rise rapidly, the group said.

"It's an expression of their fast industrial production activities and their 
fast development," Jos G.J. Olivier, the agency's senior scientist who 
compiled the figures, said Wednesday. The agency is independent but paid by 
the Dutch government to advise it on environmental policy.

The study said China, which relies on coal for two-thirds of its energy 
needs and makes 44 percent of the world's cement, produced 6.2 billion 
metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2006. In comparison, the U.S., which gets 
half its electricity from coal, produced 5.8 billion metric tons of CO2, it 
said.

The group's analysis makes sense and had been predicted to happen by 2009 or 
2010, said experts from the United Nations and the U.S. Energy Information 
Administration, and outside academics.

Bert Metz, a senior researcher at the Dutch agency and a leading expert on 
efforts to battle global warming, said the analysis was done using methods 
and data that "are the best currently available."

This means that "Chinese contributions to global CO2 emissions are getting 
more important," Metz said in an e-mail to The Associated Press.

Telephone calls to China's State Environmental Protection Agency and the 
National Development and Reform Commission, the Cabinet-level economic 
planning agency, were not answered Wednesday.

Earlier figures indicated China would likely surpass the U.S. in greenhouse 
gas emissions as early as 2009, although other predictions said it could 
happen this year.

Chinese environmental officials have said that while total emissions are 
going up, they are still less than one quarter of those of the United States 
on a per capita basis. Because China's population of 1.3 billion people is 
more than four times that of the United States, China spews about 10,500 
pounds (4,763 kilograms) of carbon dioxide per person, while in the United 
States it is nearly 42,500 pounds (19,278 kilograms) per person.

Olivier said there was not much chance China will now lose its lead.

"China's growth will saturate at some point," he said. But "for now, we 
don't see a trend (toward) this saturation yet."

Olivier said the research was based on data on fossil fuel consumption from 
BP PLC's Review of Energy 2007, compiled by the British oil company, and 
cement production data through 2006 published by the U.S. Geological Survey.

John Christensen, head of the U.N. Environment Program's Center on Energy, 
Climate and Sustainable Development in Denmark, said the figures did not 
come as a surprise.

"The Dutch agency referred to BP statistics, which is the standard reference 
tool. We have no reason to doubt that the numbers are right. We have no 
reason to doubt the methodology," Christensen said. "It's been stated many 
times that China will overtake the U.S. in emissions."

Other sources of carbon dioxide, such as deforestation and the flaring of 
gas in oil and gas production, are not included in the data. They also do 
not include methane from fuel production and agriculture and nitrous oxide 
from industry.

Fatih Birol, chief economist of the Paris-based International Energy Agency 
also said the findings were not surprising, given China's economic growth of 
more than 9 percent annually over the past 25 years.

His agency had estimated China would overtake the U.S. before 2010; in 
November it sharpened the forecast to 2007 or 2008.

But the issue is not just current emissions, but carbon dioxide stuck in the 
atmosphere, where it lingers for about a century trapping heat below, said 
Jay Apt, a professor of engineering, business and public policy at Carnegie 
Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

Apt and a colleague calculated the share of carbon dioxide now in the 
atmosphere that can be attributed to each country and determined that the 
United States is responsible for 27 percent, European nations contributed 20 
percent and China only 8 percent.

"The planet does not respond to emissions, the planet responds to the amount 
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," said Apt. "It means the U.S. will have 
the lion's share of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the foreseeable 
future. In fact, even if China's exponential growth continues, China will 
not surpass the U.S. in the numbers of carbon dioxide atoms in the 
atmosphere, that is concentration, until at least 2050, which is too late to 
start anything."

The International Energy Agency's Birol said the key message from the 
emission figures is not who is No. 1, but the need to slow growth in CO2 
emissions. "The rest of the world with the help of China needs to find ways 
for China to reduce CO2 emissions," Birol said.

China has come under growing international pressure to take more forceful 
measures to curb releases of greenhouse gases.

This month, China unveiled its first national program to combat global 
warming with promises to rein in greenhouse gas production. While the 
program offered few new concrete targets for greenhouse gas emissions, it 
outlined steps the country would take to meet a previously announced goal of 
improving energy efficiency in 2010 by 20 percent over 2005's level.

Beijing also indicated an unwillingness to enforce mandatory emissions caps.

Ma Kai, the minister heading the National Development and Reform Commission, 
said economic development is a priority for China, but efforts would be made 
to raise awareness about global warming.

China signed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which caps the amount of carbon 
dioxide that can be emitted in industrialized countries. But because China 
is considered a developing country it is exempt from emission reductions --  
a situation often cited by U.S. President George W. Bush's administration 
and Australia for not accepting the treaty.

Yang Ailun of Greenpeace China called on the country to take more steps to 
protect the environment. "Due to the urgency of climate change, China has 
the responsibility to take immediate actions to reform its energy structure 
and curb its CO2 emissions," Yang said in a statement.

She noted that Western consumers use products made in China.

"All the West has done is export a great slice of its carbon footprint to 
China and make China the world's factory," she said. "This trend has kept 
the price of projects in the West down, but led to a climate disaster in the 
long term."