In article , 
dnorth@abbeymanor.fsbusiness.co.uk (David North) wrote:

> "John M Ward"  wrote in message 
> news:507fef405fjohn@acornusers.org...
> > this was a stupendous result with a 16.5% swing to the Conservatives,
> > despite what Gordon Brown tried to claim.
> 
> This is a good example of how misleading the usual measure of swing 
> can be. The Labour share of the vote fell by 26.7%, but the 
> Conservative increase was only 6.29%, so to claim a 16.5% swing to 
> the Conservatives is patent nonsense. Both UKIP (up 9.45%) and the 
> Green Party (up 7.08%) gained more than the Conservatives did. 
> While the fall in the Labour vote was spectacular, the Conservative 
> gain was rather paltry as by-elections go.

This reminds me of past fatuous arguments with Boothroyd on swings. Thank 
you for your clear explanation.

-- 
Cllr. Colin Rosenstiel
Cambridge                    http://www.rosenstiel.co.uk/
Cambridge Liberal Democrats: http://www.cambridgelibdems.org.uk/

On Jul 25, 12:08 am, rosenst...@cix.compulink.co.uk wrote:
> dno...@abbeymanor.fsbusiness.co.uk (David North) wrote:
> > "John M Ward"  wrote
> > > this was a stupendous result with a 16.5% swing to the Conservatives,
> > > despite what Gordon Brown tried to claim.
> >
> > This is a good example of how misleading the usual measure of swing
> > can be. The Labour share of the vote fell by 26.7%, but the
> > Conservative increase was only 6.29%, so to claim a 16.5% swing to
> > the Conservatives is patent nonsense. Both UKIP (up 9.45%) and the
> > Green Party (up 7.08%) gained more than the Conservatives did.
> > While the fall in the Labour vote was spectacular, the Conservative
> > gain was rather paltry as by-elections go.
>
> This reminds me of past fatuous arguments with Boothroyd on swings. Thank
> you for your clear explanation.

Swing falls down as a concept when you have more than 2-party
politics. David Boothroyd's approach was to deny that we have more
than 2-party politics. Everyone else's approach is to try to adapt
swing to a multi-party context, while recognising that it is an
imperfect tool.

At one level, it seems to me that this was a disastrous results for
the Greens. They did very well here in the Euros; they're on the local
council. This was perfect territory for them to make a breakthrough.
There was talk of them winning, or at least coming second, or at least
coming third... and they came fifth.

On the other hand, around 10% each for UKIP and Green is pretty
dramatic. Vote shares like that at the General Election could have a
huge impact, not in electing UKIP or Green MPs, but in changing who
wins between the three big parties. I presume, like everyone else,
that their shares will drop down again at a General Election, but what
if they don't, or don't completely?
--
Henry