Apr 2 2009  by Martin Shipton, Western Mail

LABOUR’S vote in Wales is holding up surprisingly well and Plaid Cymru
has attained its highest level of support since 1999, according to the
findings of a new opinion poll.

Voters across Wales were asked how they would vote in Westminster and
National Assembly elections.

The poll was commissioned by Plaid from Cardiff-based Beaufort
Research, which regularly conducts Omnibus surveys in which a
representative sample of the Welsh population is asked questions.

In an Assembly election, which will next take place in May 2011, Labour
would get 35% of the votes (it got 32% in the 2007 election), Plaid
Cymru 27% (22%), Conservatives 16% (22%), Liberal Democrats 12% (15%),
Green 4% (-), UKIP 1% (8%) and Others 5% (-).

In a general election, which must take place before June 2010, Labour
would get 41% of the vote (43% in the 2005 election), Conservatives 22%
(21%), Plaid Cymru 17% (13%), Liberal Democrats 13% (18%), Green 2%
(-), UKIP 1% (5%) and Others 4% (-).


http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
for full article
-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

Lyn David Thomas wrote:
> Apr 2 2009  by Martin Shipton, Western Mail
> 
> LABOUR’S vote in Wales is holding up surprisingly well and Plaid Cymru
> has attained its highest level of support since 1999, according to the
> findings of a new opinion poll.
> 
> Voters across Wales were asked how they would vote in Westminster and
> National Assembly elections.
> 
> The poll was commissioned by Plaid from Cardiff-based Beaufort
> Research, which regularly conducts Omnibus surveys in which a
> representative sample of the Welsh population is asked questions.
> 
> In an Assembly election, which will next take place in May 2011, Labour
> would get 35% of the votes (it got 32% in the 2007 election), Plaid
> Cymru 27% (22%), Conservatives 16% (22%), Liberal Democrats 12% (15%),
> Green 4% (-), UKIP 1% (8%) and Others 5% (-).
> 
> In a general election, which must take place before June 2010, Labour
> would get 41% of the vote (43% in the 2005 election), Conservatives 22%
> (21%), Plaid Cymru 17% (13%), Liberal Democrats 13% (18%), Green 2%
> (-), UKIP 1% (5%) and Others 4% (-).
> 
> 
> http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
> for full article

And...?

On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
JNugent  wrote:


> > http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
> > for full article
> 
> And...?

Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
discussion and information.  If you don't want to discuss fine.

-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

In article ,
   Lyn David Thomas  wrote:
> On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
> JNugent  wrote:

> > > http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
> > > for full article
> > 
> > And...?

> Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
> discussion and information.  If you don't want to discuss fine.

Yes, I saw this on UK Polling Report, who says that such things are
"fantastically rare".  I suppose it is difficult for non-Welsh folk here
to get to grips with it, to be fair to all; but it was worth noting here,
though some comments or other thoughts of your own would have been
helpful, I think.

-- 
John M Ward - see http://www.horsted.john-ward.org.uk
--> In favour of returning all local decisions to local people!

On Thu, 2 Apr 2009 at 13:00:55, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>In an Assembly election, which will next take place in May 2011, Labour
>would get 35% of the votes (it got 32% in the 2007 election), Plaid
>Cymru 27% (22%), Conservatives 16% (22%), Liberal Democrats 12% (15%),
>Green 4% (-), UKIP 1% (8%) and Others 5% (-).
>
>In a general election, which must take place before June 2010, Labour
>would get 41% of the vote (43% in the 2005 election), Conservatives 22%
>(21%), Plaid Cymru 17% (13%), Liberal Democrats 13% (18%), Green 2%
>(-), UKIP 1% (5%) and Others 4% (-).
>
Quite a significant amount of vote changing, then.
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 09:43:25 GMT
John M Ward  wrote:

> In article ,
>    Lyn David Thomas  wrote:
> > On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
> > JNugent  wrote:
> 
> > > > http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
> > > > for full article
> > > 
> > > And...?
> 
> > Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
> > discussion and information.  If you don't want to discuss fine.
> 
> Yes, I saw this on UK Polling Report, who says that such things are
> "fantastically rare".  I suppose it is difficult for non-Welsh folk
> here to get to grips with it, to be fair to all; but it was worth
> noting here, though some comments or other thoughts of your own would
> have been helpful, I think.
> 

Well ok, huge caveat, Welsh opinion polling is fairly rare and they
don't have a good record of getting things right.  However they can, if
conducted by the same organisation, with the same methodology give you
trends.  While this poll was commissioned by Plaid it was carried out
by an independent organisation that isn't biased politically.  What is
interesting, if its is correct that the coalition is holding up fairly
well in the public eyes and that the principle losers are the Lib Dems
and in Assembly terms the Conservatives.  If you read the report in
full you can see that the new Lib Dem leader in Wales reserves most of
her comments for Ceredigion, suggesting that they fear losing that seat
at Westminster.  Myself I think the trends suggesting a better
performance by Plaid has been helped by the prominence that Plaid
Ministers have.  That during the First Minister's illness the Plaid
Deputy First Minister performed well and generally Plaid seems to be
performing well in Government.  That is not to say that there aren't
some bumpy patches but overall the impression is favourable.
Conservative support seems to be collapsing, perhaps this is because
its now taking a more cautious approach on devolution and isn't so pro
it (the Welsh leadership supporting full law making powers to the
National Assembly - which is in advance of the London leadership and a
large section of its membership in Wales). 

In the end polls are polls and a lot can happen between now and an
election, they all have to be taken in context and unless we get a
regular series of polls then we have some difficulty in judging just
how representative they are.  

But I would say that three main parties in Wales can take some heart
from aspects of this poll and only one, the Lib Dems are left with no
crumbs.

-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On 3 Apr, 01:54, JNugent  wrote:

> And...?

"And" appears in the Authorised version of the Bible 46,227 times.
Why do you ask?

Lyn David Thomas wrote:
> On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
> JNugent  wrote:
> 
> 
>>> http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
>>> for full article
>> And...?
> 
> Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
> discussion and information.  If you don't want to discuss fine.

What I meant was: "What is your point?".

On Tue, 07 Apr 2009 00:52:11 +0100
JNugent  wrote:

> Lyn David Thomas wrote:
> > On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
> > JNugent  wrote:
> > 
> > 
> >>> http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
> >>> for full article
> >> And...?
> > 
> > Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
> > discussion and information.  If you don't want to discuss fine.
> 
> What I meant was: "What is your point?".

See the reply I gave earlier if you want my opinion.  The point is that
this news group is designed to discuss election results and electoral
systems, so an opinion poll is relevant.  Its there so people can gain
information and if they want to discuss what its implications are then
that is a bonus.  The implication as far as I can see, is that the
headline figures that were previously touted of the Conservatives
getting their best ever result in Wales is unlikely, that the Lib Dems
will not do as well as they hoped, the Labour Party not as badly as
they feared and Plaid Cymru will gain (probably) a seat or two (or
maybe more).

-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

Lyn David Thomas wrote:

> The implication as far as I can see, is that the
> headline figures that were previously touted of the Conservatives
> getting their best ever result in Wales is unlikely, that the Lib Dems
> will not do as well as they hoped, the Labour Party not as badly as
> they feared and Plaid Cymru will gain (probably) a seat or two (or
> maybe more).

What's the general accuracy rate like for Welsh-specific polls? ISTR some in 
the past that were subsets of UK polls that ran into sample size issues.

Also has anyone done a poll for the Euros yet?

Lyn David Thomas wrote:

> JNugent  wrote:
>> Lyn David Thomas wrote:
>>> On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
>>> JNugent  wrote:

>>>>> http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
>>>>> for full article

>>>> And...?

>>> Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
>>> discussion and information.  If you don't want to discuss fine.

>> What I meant was: "What is your point?".

> See the reply I gave earlier if you want my opinion.  The point is that
> this news group is designed to discuss election results and electoral
> systems, so an opinion poll is relevant.

That may well be, but if you wish to initiate a discussion on the topic, it 
is best if you establish a position (perhaps using an article as background 
to that) and invite others to agree or disagree with you.

> Its there so people can gain
> information and if they want to discuss what its implications are then
> that is a bonus.  The implication as far as I can see, is that the
> headline figures that were previously touted of the Conservatives
> getting their best ever result in Wales is unlikely, that the Lib Dems
> will not do as well as they hoped, the Labour Party not as badly as
> they feared and Plaid Cymru will gain (probably) a seat or two (or
> maybe more).

Meanwhile, in other news, the Labour Party held on to several seats in 
Barnsley in 1983. And much good it did them in the ensuing three Parliaments.

Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two as 
well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?

On Tue, 7 Apr 2009 10:11:01 +0100
"Tim Roll-Pickering"  wrote:

> Lyn David Thomas wrote:
> 
> > The implication as far as I can see, is that the
> > headline figures that were previously touted of the Conservatives
> > getting their best ever result in Wales is unlikely, that the Lib
> > Dems will not do as well as they hoped, the Labour Party not as
> > badly as they feared and Plaid Cymru will gain (probably) a seat or
> > two (or maybe more).
> 
> What's the general accuracy rate like for Welsh-specific polls? ISTR
> some in the past that were subsets of UK polls that ran into sample
> size issues.

Not good, there aren't enough of them for the pollsters to adjust
their methodology, and Welsh Electoral Politics is notoriously complex,
with different sorts of contests in different places.  

However it is encouraging that there gradually seem to be more of
them.  We need regular polling to make sense of the trends, to know
what the trends are.  

Some polls have been, as you suggest, subsets of UK polls, but that is
now much rarer and they were not much use.
 
> Also has anyone done a poll for the Euros yet? 

None that I have seen



-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Tue, 07 Apr 2009 12:14:00 +0100
JNugent  wrote:


> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
> as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?

Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
general election.

-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

In article ,
   Lyn David Thomas  wrote:
> On Tue, 07 Apr 2009 12:14:00 +0100
> JNugent  wrote:

> > Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
> > as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?

> Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
> quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
> general election.

Ooh!  Interesting times ahead...

As it happens, right-wing blogger extraordinaire Iain Dale spent this last
weekend in Wales, and he has written a few posts on what he found -- with
comments from Welsh readers that are just as important to read as the blog
posts themselves, especially those disagreeing with Iain or taking him to
task on one or more matters.

-- 
John M Ward - see http://www.horsted.john-ward.org.uk
--> In favour of returning all local decisions to local people!

Lyn David Thomas wrote:

> JNugent  wrote:

>> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
>> as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?

> Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
> quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
> general election.

See - you were right (for the Euros at least).

John M Ward wrote:

>  Lyn David Thomas  wrote:
>> JNugent  wrote:

>>> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
>>> as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?

>> Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
>> quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
>> general election.

> Ooh!  Interesting times ahead...
> As it happens, right-wing blogger extraordinaire Iain Dale spent this last
> weekend in Wales, and he has written a few posts on what he found -- with
> comments from Welsh readers that are just as important to read as the blog
> posts themselves, especially those disagreeing with Iain or taking him to
> task on one or more matters.

Interesting stuff (in the out-turn).

Do you have a URL, please?

In article ,
   JNugent  wrote:
> John M Ward wrote:

> >  Lyn David Thomas  wrote:
> >> JNugent  wrote:

> >>> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
> >>> as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?

> >> Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
> >> quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
> >> general election.

> > Ooh!  Interesting times ahead...
> > As it happens, right-wing blogger extraordinaire Iain Dale spent this
> > last weekend in Wales, and he has written a few posts on what he
> > found -- with comments from Welsh readers that are just as important
> > to read as the blog posts themselves, especially those disagreeing
> > with Iain or taking him to task on one or more matters.

> Interesting stuff (in the out-turn).

> Do you have a URL, please?

Crumbs!  After all this time I'm not sure.  There were several articles at
the time (which is why I wrote it the way I did) so no single URL.

I'd hoped that those interested would have checked-in at the Dale 'blog
and kept an eye on it -- but fully accept that this is the way I'd have
responded to a post such as mine.  I've been checking via Google Blogs,
but haven't found what I was posting about, so far.

I shall continue to try (I'm not fully active online at the moment, as I
am in the process of moving house, and there is considerable interest in
"Chateau John" so I have lots of viewings going on!)

-- 
John M Ward - see http://www.horsted.john-ward.org.uk
--> In favour of returning all local decisions to local people!

On Sat, 13 Jun 2009 12:23:53 +0100
JNugent  wrote:

> Lyn David Thomas wrote:
> 
> > JNugent  wrote:
> 
> >> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or
> >> two as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is
> >> it?
> 
> > Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
> > quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
> > general election.
> 
> See - you were right (for the Euros at least).

I would be very cautious in transferring the Euro vote over to a UK
general election.  There were modest rises for both the Tories and
Plaid, the Lib Dems stagnated and UKIP increased its vote.  The real
story was the decline in the Labour vote, which I suspect means that
the Labour vote abstained more than switched to the other two main
parties, Plaid and the Tories.  Some of their vote went to minor
parties to be sure, but much of the collapse can be attributed to
abstention. 
Of course long term Labour voters could carry over the abstention to a
UK general election, but I doubt it.  Likewise I dont' expect UKIP to
keep its vote and I'd be wary of transferring the bulk of it to the
Tories.  

Interestingly Plaid increased its vote and didn't suffer from being in
coalition with Labour.  

My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
gaining between 2 and 3 seats.  I expect one independent hold and
Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority.  However a year
is a long time in politics.


-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 09:17:01, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
>between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
>gaining between 2 and 3 seats.  I expect one independent hold and
>Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority.  However a year
>is a long time in politics.

You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory 
landslide (unfortunately).
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for Wales, for 
the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?

Nick Russell
HErefordshire

"Paul Hyett" <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote in message 
news:$UHmvsUSBUNKFwc2@blueyonder.co.uk...
> On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 09:17:01, Lyn David Thomas  
> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>>
>>My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
>>between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
>>gaining between 2 and 3 seats.  I expect one independent hold and
>>Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority.  However a year
>>is a long time in politics.
>
> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory 
> landslide (unfortunately).
> -- 
> Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 20:23:34, Nick Russell  wrote 
in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>"Paul Hyett" <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote in message
>news:$UHmvsUSBUNKFwc2@blueyonder.co.uk...
>> On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 09:17:01, Lyn David Thomas 
>> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>>>
>>>My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
>>>between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
>>>gaining between 2 and 3 seats.  I expect one independent hold and
>>>Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority.  However a year
>>>is a long time in politics.
>>
>> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory
>> landslide (unfortunately).

>I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for Wales, for
>the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>
Ah - that would make more sense. The PC part should have tipped me off.
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 19:11:04 GMT
Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:

> On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 09:17:01, Lyn David Thomas
>  wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
> >
> >My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
> >between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
> >gaining between 2 and 3 seats.  I expect one independent hold and
> >Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority.  However a year
> >is a long time in politics.
> 
> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory 
> landslide (unfortunately).

I think it unlikely that the Tories will gain a majority of the Welsh
seats, there is a chance they may have more than Labour but I doubt
it.  Its very tempting to read across the results to Westminster but as
the collapse in the Labour vote was largely as a result of abstention
then I think a good chunk of that will still turn out.  

-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 20:23:34 +0100
"Nick Russell"  wrote:

> I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
> Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>
For the UK parliament, and my point is that while the European
elections will give some guide it shouldn't be read directly across for
Westminster.  The Tories vote did not increase dramatically, neither
did Plaid's, what happened was that Labour voters stayed at home.  In a
UK general election a greater proportion of those will turn out.  I
expect the Tories to do well - maybe getting 13 seats in all but not
better than that.
-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:00:13 GMT
Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:

> On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 20:23:34, Nick Russell 
> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
> >
> >"Paul Hyett" <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote in message
> >news:$UHmvsUSBUNKFwc2@blueyonder.co.uk...
> >> On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 09:17:01, Lyn David Thomas
> >>  wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
> >>>
> >>>My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories
> >>>of between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats,
> >>>Plaid gaining between 2 and 3 seats.  I expect one independent
> >>>hold and Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority.
> >>>However a year is a long time in politics.
> >>
> >> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a
> >> Tory landslide (unfortunately).
> 
> >I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
> >Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
> >
> Ah - that would make more sense. The PC part should have tipped me
> off.

No this is for Westminster.  I expect Plaid to gain seats off Labour
and the Lib Dems.  The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories and Labour
to lose seats to the Tories.  I don't see the Tories holding over half
the Welsh seats as some project.  Remember their vote increased by only
around 2%.


-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 08:21:22, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

>On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:00:13 GMT
>Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a
>> >> Tory landslide (unfortunately).
>>
>> >I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
>> >Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>> >
>> Ah - that would make more sense. The PC part should have tipped me
>> off.
>
>No this is for Westminster.

Ah, OK - then my original comment stands.

> I expect Plaid to gain seats off Labour
>and the Lib Dems.

Presumably Ceredigion & Ynys Mon (and a very outside chance of 
Llanelli)?

>  The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories

I don't expect this, at least not in Wales.

> and Labour
>to lose seats to the Tories.

In droves!
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 08:16:54, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

>>
>> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory
>> landslide (unfortunately).
>
>I think it unlikely that the Tories will gain a majority of the Welsh
>seats, there is a chance they may have more than Labour but I doubt
>it.  Its very tempting to read across the results to Westminster but as
>the collapse in the Labour vote was largely as a result of abstention
>then I think a good chunk of that will still turn out.

On the basis of '*anything* to keep the Tories out'?

I don't see that working any better for them, than it did for the Tories 
in 1997.
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 08:19:25, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

>On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 20:23:34 +0100
>"Nick Russell"  wrote:
>
>> I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
>> Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>>
>For the UK parliament, and my point is that while the European
>elections will give some guide it shouldn't be read directly across for
>Westminster.  The Tories vote did not increase dramatically, neither
>did Plaid's, what happened was that Labour voters stayed at home.  In a
>UK general election a greater proportion of those will turn out.  I
>expect the Tories to do well - maybe getting 13 seats in all but not
>better than that.

You must be the only person who's not a Labour MP who doesn't think 
there'll be a Tory landslide. :p

Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many 
seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy & 
the expenses scandal.
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Jun 15, 6:01 pm, Paul Hyett <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote:
> On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 08:19:25, Lyn David Thomas 
> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>
> >On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 20:23:34 퍝
> >"Nick Russell"  wrote:
>
> >> I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
> >> Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>
> >For the UK parliament, and my point is that while the European
> >elections will give some guide it shouldn't be read directly across for
> >Westminster.  The Tories vote did not increase dramatically, neither
> >did Plaid's, what happened was that Labour voters stayed at home.  In a
> >UK general election a greater proportion of those will turn out.  I
> >expect the Tories to do well - maybe getting 13 seats in all but not
> >better than that.
>
> You must be the only person who's not a Labour MP who doesn't think
> there'll be a Tory landslide. :p
>
> Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
> seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy &
> the expenses scandal.

I presume Lyn is talking about the Welsh seats at Westminster, yes?
--
Henry

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:01:58 GMT
Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:

> On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 08:19:25, Lyn David Thomas
>  wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
> 
> >On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 20:23:34 +0100
> >"Nick Russell"  wrote:
> >
> >> I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
> >> Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
> >>
> >For the UK parliament, and my point is that while the European
> >elections will give some guide it shouldn't be read directly across
> >for Westminster.  The Tories vote did not increase dramatically,
> >neither did Plaid's, what happened was that Labour voters stayed at
> >home.  In a UK general election a greater proportion of those will
> >turn out.  I expect the Tories to do well - maybe getting 13 seats
> >in all but not better than that.
> 
> You must be the only person who's not a Labour MP who doesn't think 
> there'll be a Tory landslide. :p
> 
> Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many 
> seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy & 
> the expenses scandal.

I think that in Wales the Labour Party will lose a shed load of seats.
I don't think that is the same as a Tory landslide.  I concede that
Labour could cease to be the largest single party in Wales.  But the
increase in the Tory vote was marginal, not huge.  The real story is
the collapse in the Labour vote, to abstention and to a variety of
minor parties.  I think the Labour Party will lose in the order of 10
seats in Wales.  

How do you read the election?  Given the small increase in the Tory
vote what makes you think it will be a tory lanslide in Wales, by which
I take it you mean that the Tories will have over 20 seats in Wales.



-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:46:57 -0700 (PDT)
Henry Potts  wrote:


> > Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
> > seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy
> > & the expenses scandal.
> 
> I presume Lyn is talking about the Welsh seats at Westminster, yes?

Indeed.



-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:01:58 GMT
Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:

>
> >No this is for Westminster.
> 
> Ah, OK - then my original comment stands.
> 
> > I expect Plaid to gain seats off Labour
> >and the Lib Dems.
> 
> Presumably Ceredigion & Ynys Mon (and a very outside chance of 
> Llanelli)?

Indeed, and an outside (very) on the new Aberconwy seat.

> >  The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories
> 
> I don't expect this, at least not in Wales.

Don't be too sure of this.  Brecon and Radnor has been marginal on and
off for decades.  Given where the Lib Dems finished in Montgomery they
may lose that too.

> > and Labour
> >to lose seats to the Tories.
> 
> In droves!

Oh yes, but not giving the Tories more than half of the Welsh seats.

There is a myth that the Tories get an insubstantial vote in Wales.
They don't, however the vagaries of FPTP has always underestimated
their vote and reduced the number of seats that they won.  Based on the
Euro elections they would will a huge number of seats, but these have
historically been unreliable.  Expect lots of dodgy bar charts proving
that voting for anyone else will hand the seat to the Tories.



-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:01:58 GMT
Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:

> On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 08:16:54, Lyn David Thomas
>  wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
> 
> >>
> >> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a
> >> Tory landslide (unfortunately).
> >
> >I think it unlikely that the Tories will gain a majority of the Welsh
> >seats, there is a chance they may have more than Labour but I doubt
> >it.  Its very tempting to read across the results to Westminster but
> >as the collapse in the Labour vote was largely as a result of
> >abstention then I think a good chunk of that will still turn out.
> 
> On the basis of '*anything* to keep the Tories out'?
> 
> I don't see that working any better for them, than it did for the
> Tories in 1997.


This is Wales.  The Tories triumphalism over the vote will do wonders
to reinvogorate the Labour Party.  I don't think its quite as dead as
people think.

-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On 15 June, 18:01, Paul Hyett <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote:
> On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 08:19:25, Lyn David Thomas 
> wrote
> >expect the Tories to do well - maybe getting 13 seats in all but not
> >better than that.
>
> You must be the only person who's not a Labour MP who doesn't think
> there'll be a Tory landslide. :p
>
> Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
> seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy &
> the expenses scandal.

Er... if the Conservative Party were to get 13 seats then it probably
would be a landslide, surely?  Even in 1983 it was only 14.

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 21:16:50, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>>
>> You must be the only person who's not a Labour MP who doesn't think
>> there'll be a Tory landslide. :p
>>
>> Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
>> seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy &
>> the expenses scandal.
>
>I think that in Wales the Labour Party will lose a shed load of seats.

There are a number that could fall on 10% swings, based on the old 
boundaries - but the presence of the LD's & PC make predictions of 
vote-swing  in Welsh seats even more problematic than usual.

>  I concede that
>Labour could cease to be the largest single party in Wales.

I can't see that happening - what seats they do lose will be too split 
between the other parties.

> But the
>increase in the Tory vote was marginal, not huge.  The real story is
>the collapse in the Labour vote, to abstention and to a variety of
>minor parties.

But there won't be as much abstention in a GE, of course.

> I think the Labour Party will lose in the order of 10
>seats in Wales.

I'd be surprised if it were that many.
>
>How do you read the election?  Given the small increase in the Tory
>vote what makes you think it will be a tory lanslide in Wales

I don't think *that* - my comment referred only to the UK as a whole.

>, by which
>I take it you mean that the Tories will have over 20 seats in Wales.
>
Hardly - they'd need by-election type swings for that!
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 21:22:11, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>>
>> > I expect Plaid to gain seats off Labour
>> >and the Lib Dems.
>>
>> Presumably Ceredigion & Ynys Mon (and a very outside chance of
>> Llanelli)?
>
>Indeed, and an outside (very) on the new Aberconwy seat.

I haven't heard of that one.

I really should find a map of the revised constituencies...
>
>> >  The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories
>>
>> I don't expect this, at least not in Wales.
>
>Don't be too sure of this.  Brecon and Radnor has been marginal on and
>off for decades.  Given where the Lib Dems finished in Montgomery they
>may lose that too.

But the LD's won't suffer from the same electoral fall-out as Labour.
>
>> > and Labour
>> >to lose seats to the Tories.
>>
>> In droves!
>
>Oh yes, but not giving the Tories more than half of the Welsh seats.

Of course not.
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 20:32:12, JohnLoony  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

>>
>> Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
>> seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy &
>> the expenses scandal.
>
>Er... if the Conservative Party were to get 13 seats then it probably
>would be a landslide, surely?

More like a dinosaur-killing asteroid! :p

> Even in 1983 it was only 14.
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Tue, 16 Jun 2009 07:01:45 GMT
Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:

> On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 at 20:32:12, JohnLoony  
> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
> 
> >>
> >> Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
> >> seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the
> >> economy & the expenses scandal.
> >
> >Er... if the Conservative Party were to get 13 seats then it probably
> >would be a landslide, surely?
> 
> More like a dinosaur-killing asteroid! :p
> 
> > Even in 1983 it was only 14.

I have seen some Tories claiming that they could get as many as 26
seats based on the euro results.  

My take is that some of the old voting patterns will reassert themselves
when you have the business of electing a UK government, that UKIPs vote
will collapse, but not go to the Tories exclusively (which seems to be
part of the Tory calculations), and that the abstentionists will turn
out in respectable numbers.


-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

Paul Hyett wrote:

>>> >  The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories

>>> I don't expect this, at least not in Wales.

>>Don't be too sure of this.  Brecon and Radnor has been marginal on and
>>off for decades.  Given where the Lib Dems finished in Montgomery they
>>may lose that too.

> But the LD's won't suffer from the same electoral fall-out as Labour.

Not the same but the Lib Dems have their own problems.

Montgomeryshire isn't quite the "Liberal forever (except when they're too 
busy planning centenary celebrations to actually campaign to retain it)" 
bastion of legend but in several ways is very much a personalist 
constituency. Now sure I have my personal biases but much of what I've heard 
from there (including from my sister, who until recently lived and worked in 
Machynlleth at the very west of the seat and is somewhat to the left of me), 
Lembit Opik's popularity is shrinking faster than an asteroid burning up in 
the atmosphere because of his clowning around, high profile personal life 
and lack of any serious political track record.

By contrast the Conservative candidate is Glyn Davies is widely respected 
across the political spectrum - I've heard many Plaid members openly say a 
lot of good things about him (and even that they'd vote for him) - and if 
anything has increased his appeal by losing his list seat in the last 
Assembly elections only because the Conservatives gained two constituencies. 
Whilst the Assembly list results aren't a 100% guide to what will happen in 
a Westminster election, it's notable the Conservatives topped the poll 
there.

Furthermore with the Liberal Democrats under pressure in the neighbouring 
seats of Brecon & Radnorshire and Ceredigion they simply can't target all 
their energy in Mid & West Wales on Montgomeryshire even if they wanted to - 
and from comments by Lib Dem activists I get the feeling that many would not 
want to anyway and are certainly not going to haul themselves great 
distances to allow Lembit to carry on as Mr Celebrity.

On Tue, 16 Jun 2009 at 08:13:17, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>I have seen some Tories claiming that they could get as many as 26
>seats based on the euro results.
>
>My take is that some of the old voting patterns will reassert themselves
>when you have the business of electing a UK government, that UKIPs vote
>will collapse, but not go to the Tories exclusively (which seems to be
>part of the Tory calculations)

This UKIP vote certainly *won't*!
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Tue, 16 Jun 2009 at 11:08:44, Tim Roll-Pickering 
 wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>> But the LD's won't suffer from the same electoral fall-out as Labour.
>
>Not the same but the Lib Dems have their own problems.
>
>Montgomeryshire isn't quite the "Liberal forever (except when they're too
>busy planning centenary celebrations to actually campaign to retain it)"
>bastion of legend but in several ways is very much a personalist
>constituency. Now sure I have my personal biases but much of what I've heard
>from there (including from my sister, who until recently lived and worked in
>Machynlleth at the very west of the seat and is somewhat to the left of me),
>Lembit Opik's popularity is shrinking faster than an asteroid burning up in
>the atmosphere because of his clowning around, high profile personal life
>and lack of any serious political track record.

Is he still shagging one of the Cheeky Girls? :)
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:06:09 GMT
Paul Hyett <pah@invalid.invalid> wrote:

> On Tue, 16 Jun 2009 at 08:13:17, Lyn David Thomas
>  wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
> >
> >I have seen some Tories claiming that they could get as many as 26
> >seats based on the euro results.
> >
> >My take is that some of the old voting patterns will reassert
> >themselves when you have the business of electing a UK government,
> >that UKIPs vote will collapse, but not go to the Tories exclusively
> >(which seems to be part of the Tory calculations)
> 
> This UKIP vote certainly *won't*!

Not collapse or go to the Tories?

-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:08:44 +0100
"Tim Roll-Pickering"  wrote:

> Paul Hyett wrote:
> 
> >>> >  The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories
> 
> >>> I don't expect this, at least not in Wales.
> 
> >>Don't be too sure of this.  Brecon and Radnor has been marginal on
> >>and off for decades.  Given where the Lib Dems finished in
> >>Montgomery they may lose that too.
> 
> > But the LD's won't suffer from the same electoral fall-out as
> > Labour.
> 
> Not the same but the Lib Dems have their own problems.
> 
> Montgomeryshire isn't quite the "Liberal forever (except when they're
> too busy planning centenary celebrations to actually campaign to
> retain it)" bastion of legend but in several ways is very much a
> personalist constituency. Now sure I have my personal biases but much
> of what I've heard from there (including from my sister, who until
> recently lived and worked in Machynlleth at the very west of the seat
> and is somewhat to the left of me), Lembit Opik's popularity is
> shrinking faster than an asteroid burning up in the atmosphere
> because of his clowning around, high profile personal life and lack
> of any serious political track record.
> By contrast the Conservative candidate is Glyn Davies is widely
> respected across the political spectrum - I've heard many Plaid
> members openly say a lot of good things about him (and even that
> they'd vote for him) - and if anything has increased his appeal by
> losing his list seat in the last Assembly elections only because the
> Conservatives gained two constituencies. Whilst the Assembly list
> results aren't a 100% guide to what will happen in a Westminster
> election, it's notable the Conservatives topped the poll there.

Of course the Tories topped the poll there in the last Euro Elections
too I believe.... or so its thought.

> Furthermore with the Liberal Democrats under pressure in the
> neighbouring seats of Brecon & Radnorshire and Ceredigion they simply
> can't target all their energy in Mid & West Wales on Montgomeryshire
> even if they wanted to - and from comments by Lib Dem activists I get
> the feeling that many would not want to anyway and are certainly not
> going to haul themselves great distances to allow Lembit to carry on
> as Mr Celebrity. 

They have problems... Brecon and Radnor is marginal normally,
Montgomery supposedly eternally Liberal, but as you say Lembit may well
have blown it.  Glyn Davies is a well respected figure, prodevolution
and produces one of the better political blogs in Wales.  With another
seat that looks in danger next door - Ceredigion, the Lib Dems are
going to be badly stretched.  Of the big 4 parties in Wales they are
the most vulnerable to lack of funding and members.  



-- 
\/ Lyn David Thomas

On Tue, 16 Jun 2009 at 22:25:54, Lyn David Thomas  
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>> >
>> >My take is that some of the old voting patterns will reassert
>> >themselves when you have the business of electing a UK government,
>> >that UKIPs vote will collapse, but not go to the Tories exclusively
>> >(which seems to be part of the Tory calculations)
>>
>> This UKIP vote certainly *won't*!
>
>Not collapse or go to the Tories?

The latter.
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Paul Hyett wrote:

>>Lembit Opik's popularity is shrinking faster than an asteroid burning up 
>>in
>>the atmosphere because of his clowning around, high profile personal life
>>and lack of any serious political track record.

> Is he still shagging one of the Cheeky Girls? :)

He's now with some 21 year model isn't he? How *does* he do it?!

On Thu, 6 Aug 2009 at 23:27:51, Tim Roll-Pickering 
 wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

>Paul Hyett wrote:
>
>>>Lembit Opik's popularity is shrinking faster than an asteroid burning up
>>>in
>>>the atmosphere because of his clowning around, high profile personal life
>>>and lack of any serious political track record.
>
>> Is he still shagging one of the Cheeky Girls? :)
>
>He's now with some 21 year model isn't he? How *does* he do it?!
>
Viagra? :p
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham